The global vegetable oil market is one of the most critical segments of the agricultural sector, providing a significant share of fat consumption in the food and technical industries. In 2024, the market volume was estimated at $280.5 billion, with a projected growth of $408.4 billion by 2033 [1,IMARC Group]. The market is showing steady growth due to increasing demand for healthy food products, expanding use of biofuels, and introducing new production technologies.
According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), the sunflower harvest in Ukraine in the 2024/2025 marketing year (MY) is forecast at 12.9 million tons, which is 0.4 million tons more than the previous estimate. Sunflower oil production is expected to reach 5.398 million tons, of which 5 million tons will be exported [2, Агропортал]. At the same time, according to analysts’ forecasts, the supply of sunflower oil from the countries of the Black Sea region, including Ukraine, to the world market in the 2024/2025 MY will decrease by 18% [3, APK Inform].
As of December 31, 2025, the world price of sunflower oil was 1276.10 USD per ton, 0.30% higher than the previous period [4, Мінфін]. According to OIL WORLD forecasts, oil prices will increase to a three-year high in the first half of 2025, with sunflower oil likely to lead the price growth due to the expected sharp reduction in global export stocks [5,APK Inform]. Reduced supplies from the Black Sea region and rising world prices may increase the cost of sunflower oil in Ukraine’s domestic market. At the same time, increased production may partially offset this impact. Consumers should expect a possible price increase, while producers may benefit from rising export prices.
Production and Export of Vegetable oils
Indonesia, Malaysia, China, Argentina, and Ukraine are the global leaders in vegetable oil production. Palm, soybean, rapeseed, and Ukraine sunflower oils are the most popular.
Ukraine, for example, remains the largest exporter of sunflower oil despite the challenges associated with geopolitical events. According to the [6, FAO], Ukraine exports sunflower oil, about 50% of global oil.
Indonesia and Malaysia dominate the palm oil segment, producing together more than 85% of the world’s volume. However, strict environmental restrictions in these countries affect supply growth.
Vegetable oil prices vary significantly depending on supply and demand. The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index increased by 7.5% in November 2024, reaching 164.1 points. The main factors behind this growth were: 1) Adverse weather conditions cause higher palm oil prices due to lower production in Indonesia. 2) Higher sunflower oil prices due to export restrictions from Ukraine. 3) Demand for soybean oil due to its increased use in biofuel production in the US [7, Reuters].
Today, Factors influencing: 1) Economic conditions. The strengthening of the US dollar makes oil imports more expensive for developing countries. 2) Geopolitical risks. The war in Ukraine has decreased sunflower oil exports, affecting the global supply-demand balance for 2022-2025. 3) Changes in consumer preferences. Increased demand for healthy products contributes to the popularity of unrefined and organic oils.
The growing use of biofuels is one key driver of market growth, and the increasing use of vegetable oils in biofuel production is also a key factor. According to the [8 OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook,] using vegetable oils for biofuels will increase by 20% by 2030.
